Friday Numbers

There were 281 new listings today and 162 sales, for a sell/list of 57.65%.  Of the sales 29, or 17.9%, went over list.  10of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 in Richmond,  2 in New West,  4 in North Van, 2 in Coquitlam, 2 in Burnaby and 3 in the Fraser Valley. 

Average list price of the sales was $544,047; average sales price was $540,744, a difference of $3,273, meaning the average sale went for 0.74% under list price. 14 properties went for list price. One property went for 16%($95,000) under list while the highest over list was 34% ($187,000) over.

There were 1 million dollar plus properties sold, with  two over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 38.

There were 84 price changes, of which 9, or 10.71%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $584,969; the average new price was $576,263, a difference of $8,706, meaning the average price change was -2.6%.  Average days on market to price change was 43.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,072, while over 90s fell to 1,761, a percentage drop to 15.9%.

0.68% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. 

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57 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

57 responses to “Friday Numbers

  1. Domus

    11k…..maybe a small and insignificant landmark, but still much earlier than I thought…..next bet is when we’ll hit 12k……any takers.

    Rob, thanks for the early Friday numbers, you’re aa gentleman….have a good weekend.

  2. whybuywhenucanrent

    And 37 Expiries?

    Whybuywhenucanrent

  3. systemguy

    I guess we will have a better idea at end of this month where this market is going… it is full of mixed signals. I see pockets of very hot activities but it seems the whole market is loosing its steam.

    11k or 12k doesn’t matter that much. What matters is how people perceive where this market is going. It has become clear that Vancouver has reached or near its max.

    Personally, I would be interested in buying in the states nowadays. There are a lot more potential good buys…

  4. e

    i think the people with $$$ are still buying. house at $1.5M near me sold in 1 day.

    4/20/2006 the inventory was 8217
    4/20/2007 it is 11072.

    35% higher.

  5. Jim

    e.
    The market is stratified for sure. Forget about average incomes and average home prices. In the $1 million plus purchase range family incomes are $180k plus. Tell some one making $25o k they are gonna lose a bidding war for the sake of 50k or 100k or about$1000 per month. The big difference is, instead of 4 or 5 offers over asking prices, you’re seeing only 1 ,maybe 2, on great houses.

  6. dacnet

    Rob, seeing the increase in inventory, do you have figures, or even a feel for the per annum growth in housing stock in the area you report on ? Would you expect inventory to increase in some way as it is relative to any increase in housing stock ?

  7. coco

    Maybe people are finally getting tapped out financially.

    Condo’s and townhouses have priced themselves so high, that the inventory is near double compared to last year at this time.

    Looked at a 700k reno special, technically sold, but the buyer wanted to extend the subject date due to trying to secure financing.

  8. chip

    Jim said:

    “In the $1 million plus purchase range family incomes are $180k plus. Tell some one making $25o k they are gonna lose a bidding war for the sake of 50k or 100k or about$1000 per month.”

    There’s more than a bidding war to consider. Most people with that kind of income should have some awareness that the market is slowing, and that the next several years could be marked by falling lower prices. With a million+ dollar property a modest 20% correction over three years puts you at least 200,000 in the hole.

  9. fake name

    Rob, I noticed Realtylink has not published March sales report.

    Do you know why?

    My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the market may be showing early signs of a serious down turn.

  10. Mark

    Hitting 11K inventory at this time of year compared to previous years in definitely an indicator of a changing market. It will also be interesting to see what interest rate direction the Bank of Canada takes on April 24.

  11. Noname

    I have the feeling that people who are still buying today are not necesserily the high income earners.

    People buying today are people who are using the profits made in the last 3 years.

    There are probably many people out there making 60K/year but they might have made 200-300K in last 3 years just from their appreciating house.

    This would explain why people can still ‘afford’ these prices.

    Noname

  12. robchipman

    fakename:

    That’s not a serious question is it? Why would I know or care what Realtylink does with a widely publicised monthly news release from the REBGV? Its 3 week old news that was widely circulated on the net and MSM.

    If your conspiracy theory is right, Realtylink hides the truth the way you hide your identity (poorly:-)

    dacnet:

    Good question, but I don’t have an answer or a feel. I would expect inventory to grow more or less apace with housnig stock and population, but there would have to be market fluctuations. Those fluctuations would be the real meat (another “how far off mean/average/expected number?” question). VHB – why don’t you crunch some of that and put your results up here?

  13. coco

    March 2007 Canadian inflation rate 2.3%. It will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday when they set the interest rates. The government is wanting to set inflation at 2.0% period, so even if they leave the interest rate unchanged this month, next month can be a different story.

  14. Yes I am a Bear

    “If your conspiracy theory is right, Realtylink hides the truth the way you hide your identity (poorly:-)”

    No kidding Rob, although you might be thrown off slightly, (from the IP address)I’m at a Starbucks in East Van, and just a few feet away from me is somebody reading and( posting?) on your blog.

    But all that aside, you have to admit this run is over.

  15. e

    chip: yes, i think most people who have that kind of money may be able to read a downturn, but also these are the types who
    1) know that over the long run they will be better off
    2) have a large amount of assets so this isn’t that big of a hit
    3) have value in the enjoyment of the asset

    i was recently talking to my boss who has a household income of over 500k+, and he is still buying property even though he says he believes it is overpriced and due to correct. his reason? the enjoyment for his out of town family is worth it.

    …. luxuries that the broader market does not have — or does it?

  16. Domus

    We can dream on about large fortunes, but the bulk of the market on the west side is still salaried families who have to watch their pockets……read the national statistics. It is easy to be misled by flashy purchases.

    Crash approaching fast…..we are on a sloping incline by now….

  17. e

    Domus: thats true. a lot of them are salaried/working families, hence explaining the dingy and inhumane conditions which many of them have to put up with to live in some of those homes! i wouldn’t even want my dog to live in some of those homes i see for sale. anybody with money and decency would definately not want to put up with those conditions — they would have the luxury of paying extra for something cleaner, nicer.

  18. Domus

    e, what are you on about?

    All I meant is that a lot of people are stretching beyond their own means.

  19. aaronbest

    Anybody who stretches themselves to the max, makes that choice. Nobody forces you to pay more than a house is worth with no subjects. I guess what I’m saying is if owning is your goal, make sure you can afford what you are buying. This isn’t ground breaking news by any stretch of the imagination. People who buy should set a budget. Your budget will quickly tell you what and where you can buy. Unless you have deep pockets, most likely you will have to make some sacrifices. I think I mentioned before. My sacrifice was to move to New Westminster instead of Vancouver. It isn’t exactly what I wanted, but I don’t have to cross any bridges, and I can afford the space I need. People get too hung up on what they want, when they should be focusing on what they need. That’s just my 2 cents.

  20. djmk

    today my wife and i went to three open houses, 1 in burnaby and 2 in east van.

    the house in burnaby had a line up of people trying to get in. i do not do line ups so i just drove on.

    the second house was cute (ie tiny) but there was about 15 pairs of shoes outside and a lot of young couples inside having private conversations. (ie bidding war) i do not do bidding wars so i drove on

    the third house needed work. still a lot of people

    i want this slow down to start NOW

  21. Domus

    djmk:

    it is good to be patient in life. Do not be misled by line-ups. I am of the opinion that in many cases all viewers are packed in together to put pressure on buyers. It is a rather unpleasant but effective marketing trick.

    I am not sure what your personal circumstances are, but if I were you I’d just chill and enjoy the inventory build-up and the price decline coming in the next few months. Then I’d pop in when there is enough choice for me to get something I truly like.

    It will happen, although it is hard to believe at the moment….

  22. Snick

    “It will happen, although it is hard to believe at the moment…. ” -Domus

    Yes. Indeed it will.

  23. Skeptic

    Domus, don’t hold your breath waiting for price declines. Prices are still rising from what I can see. Anecdotally, in my area, lots of agent signs have sold on them and home opens are generating lots of traffic. Spring is well and truly here and the next few weeks should see strong sales numbers as people buy and remove subjects.

    While there are overlist sales, we won’t see price declines.

  24. first_time_buyer

    “Anecdotally, in my area, lots of agent signs have sold on them and home opens are generating lots of traffic”

    maybe majority of rob’s sales come from your area. my area seems dry like a desert as far as “sold” signs are concerned where as its blossoming spring for listings, they are like mushrooms all over the place.

  25. VHB

    Wecome to 11k-land. I predict 12K for May 15th, FWIW. I think we will get over 11500 by the end of April, but then the month end expiries will claw back the total for a few days until we get the final mid-May surge to 12K-land.

    Keep ’em coming.

  26. Domus

    Skeptic:

    never said overlists are not there. Just said that they won’t be there for much longer. We are about 12 months behind the US.

    Even in a tanking market you can find occasional overlists, but the times when you sold your place in 5 days over lists are soon to end.

    Seems impossible? Let’s wait a bit longer….

    VHB: are the real one?

  27. aaronbest

    Domus said…”Do not be misled by line-ups. I am of the opinion that in many cases all viewers are packed in together to put pressure on buyers. It is a rather unpleasant but effective marketing trick.”

    An open house is just that. The door is open, and interested parties take a look. You make it sound like people are being forced into open houses like concentration camps.

  28. robchipman

    Yes I Am A Bear:

    “But all that aside, you have to admit this run is over”.

    If you’re saying a crash is imminent, hey, I don’t know. The market will change. I’ve said that before.

    But admit that the current run is over, as in, past tense? Clearly its not. Look at the facts. Prices are rising, sales are strong, traffic in opens is heavy. I’d conclude that the old girl still has some life in her yet ;-). Read between the lines of Aaron’s post.

    And I don’t think many people are thrown off. Your m.o. is pretty repetitive. Whatever floats your boat. Use as many names as you want, but don’t get too goofy.

    domus:

    Realtors don’t control who comes to open houses, and they don’t pack ’em in to pressure them to buy. And while you may find an occassional overlist in a tanking market, we’ve got way more than occassional ones, right?

    In terms of choice and price, if someone waits now, and inventory blossoms, and sales fall, there will be more choice, but will it be at a lower price? Won’t there be more non-sales? Will the cherry places that everyone wants still sell? Maybe not. Perhaps within 90-180 days we’ll undergo a big change, and inventory will follow sales volume. You’ll be able to buy for less (assuming the price drop didn’t come from rising interest rates), but won’t some sellers have just left the market? Possible, yes? After all, when prices drop the market generally slows, and slow markets usually have low inventory (even foreclosures are gone within a year, start to finish).

    VHB: I’m writing it down. When is a trend a trend? When you call it correctly a few times in a row. If we keep going like we are….(Yes, I can hear you say “duh!” 😉

  29. not a good game

    rob, “Read between the lines of Aaron’s post”

    It will be a while before I can read between Aarons complex fiction, I am still studying William Faulkner.

  30. Jim

    2 things:

    To those of you that frequent other blogs someone posting as Jim is not me.
    Secondly, hat tip to Rob for calling ’em as he sees ’em. It ain’t over.
    Domus-It will be over this Fall.

  31. Millionpitfall

    Open house traffic is not a predictor of the housing market. Many people go “looking” for fun. Many don’t even qualify for mortgages. And….many neighbours come out to snoop, so they can see what your house looks like or how much they can get for theirs.

    Our realtor told us open houses are a way for the realtor to pick up other business, hense when you walk in the door the first thing they say, ” Do you have a realtor?” “Are you working with a realtor?”

    We sold in the peak of a busy market, had a open house with tons of people, but our offer did not come from anyone who attended the open house.

  32. Millionpitfall

    VHB,

    I believe your magic number will come a lot sooner than May 15.

  33. robchipman

    Look, isn’tmynewnamereallyclever:

    I’m not surprised that you can’t decipher what Aaron says, but to confuse it with fiction says more about you than about him. Its all there.

    On a different note, don’t post things that I have to mark as spam, ‘kay? I’ve deleted about 10 of your posts, and I’m getting tired of it.

    millionpitfall:

    Bullseye comment.

  34. Your such a lamer!

    Hey how come VHB only allows invited readers on his blog but comes and goes as he chooses on this blog?

    Take a hike VHB, your a “snob lamer”.

  35. VHB

    Hi Lamer,

    my blog is shut down. There is nothing for anyone to see.

  36. Slow pitch one for Rob

    Rob :
    “Prices are rising, sales are strong, traffic in opens is heavy. I’d conclude that the old girl still has some life in her yet ;-).”

    Prices are rising- maybe; could it be the way the median price is calculated?

    I note, you don’t talk about the affordability problem, is it because of what has happened in the past when affordability got this low.

    Naturally, you don’t want to talk much about the growing inventory, have you been out of your selling area lately?

  37. Skeptic

    Come on slow one, why don’t you make a point yourself, rather than attacking Rob.

    What do you think of affordability, why do you think its a problem.

    Rob isn’t hiding from the inventory numbers, in fact he posts them most days.

  38. reply to Skeptic

    Skeptic: Where is the personal attack?
    Do you not see an affordability problem when it is this low, concurrently with the best economic conditions in 50years?

    I did not accuse Rob of “hiding” inventory stats, in fact I asked him about inventory outside his area.

  39. robchipman

    Lamer:

    Everyone comes and goes as they like on this blog. It’s allowed.

    Soft one: You’re juggling too many conspiracies. I don’t want to overstep my bounds, but its the “benchmark” price that you want to accuse the Board of calculating differently. You can’t calculate a median price or an average price “differently”. (Of course, you could be trying to say that the Board calcuates the median, doesn’t like it, throws it away, and makes up a fake number, except they’d get caught doing that, because the raw sales figures are available to other parties).

    Bottom line on price – they’re still rising, and there’s no “maybe” about it.

    I’ve done affordability to death. Take a break from posting and do some reading. Another affordability “rant” from me will ruin a few people’s Sunday morning.

    Point three? Inventory? My selling area is the same as my target area. It covers more area than you see in a week unless you drive the beer truck. I am the antithesis of a neighbourhood specialist. I monitor and talk about inventory every day. I calculate MOIs and keep an eye on them.

  40. Skeptic

    Affordability is pretty much only an issue for first time buyers. For everybody else, its not the price of the property that is the issue, its the size of the mortgage. What I’m trying to say is that non-ftb’s will generally be bringing equity with them.

    Sources of equity vary, some examples are; profits from previously held property, stock market profits, baby boomer parents (gifts or estate) and personal savings.

    Because of this, the link between income (salary) and house prices is a bit indirect.

    Also, people taking on a $5k monthly mortgage repayment may be getting income from their investments, as well as salary, just because they have a $5k monthly mortgage payment doesn’t necessarily mean they earn $250k +, they may have a large stock portfolio generating cashflow. Everyone’s circumstances are different.

  41. Reply to Skeptic

    “What I’m trying to say is that non-ftb’s will generally be bringing equity with them.”

    Agreed.

    The problem will surface when non-ftb’s can no longer get 300k for a leaky condo in
    Mount Pleasant.

  42. Skeptic

    I’m not sure what point you are trying to make ?!?

  43. Noname

    Skeptic,

    Read up on ‘plankton theory’ and you will see what he is referring to.

    Noname

  44. millionpitfall

    Vancouver firefighter that lives in Delta, gets busted for grow op. Ironically, Vancouver Fire Department also works to bust grow ops, at a rate of five per day.

    Other sources of income alright.

  45. sherri

    Rob,

    I have to disagree with your comment regarding realtors controling who comes to an open house. They may not control who comes through the door but they will do thier absolute best to try and create the biggest gong show they can. I dont blame them for this as it is thier job they want to sell the house for the highest price, thier C is based on it.

    It is thier job to create the biggest stir for the product and in some cases this entails a little bit of a dog and pony show orchustrated by thier own handy work.

  46. Domus

    New week starting tomorrow…..I think it might bring some more good news for the bears…….patience, patience……

  47. realitycheck

    Sherri, your response may have had more credibility if you didn’t have so many spelling errors.

  48. Domus

    I thought this short report might add some insight in what is reasonably meant by the term “affordability”. See the link:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6586189.stm

    I don’t think my observations of past Friday were too far off the mark….

  49. Johnnyrent

    VHB if you’re out there

    VHB unfortunately since you shut down your blog a lot of historical statistics went with it. Maybe you could provide this data to one of the other Vancouver RE blogs or post it to some other webspace that you didn’t have to manage.

    At any rate, could you provide information on the length of this runup compared to past runups in GV. Thanks, JR

  50. robchipman

    Domus:

    Your point was taken earlier, in terms of x amount of money only buys y amount of product, and if one product takes 70% of the income, there’s less money left over for other things in the economy.

    However, given GM’s track record I’m not sure I’d pin their woes on the sub-prime meltdown. Its kind of like citing the New York Times as a credible and objective news source. GM was having a tough time making a buck before the sub-prime problem.

    Your link also fails to address the interplay between an objective measure of affordability (say price/income

  51. Domus

    …..I like the NYT……

  52. robchipman

    You might like it, and it may be a great paper, but let’s face it – they’re a newspaper, have been wrong on tons of the big stories over the years (as MSM is wont to be) and have admitted to falsifying the news. I mean, I like the National Post, but that doesn’t mean I buy what they print lock stock and barrel. They’re (NYT and NP) a great source of ideas, opinions and information, but not necessarily truth.

    Anyway, the comment above was truncated: my problem with the affordability argument is that it doesn’t adress the gap between an objective measure (like your idea of price/income less than 4) and the two very different costs of housing and home ownership.

    OT, what do you think recent calls for rent control would do to either?

  53. Mightymouse

    Johnnyrent,

    Even if a website is taken off line, Google has it stored in one of their servers for a while. Instead of clicking on the main link in the search results, click on the link that says ‘cached’.

    Eventually Google will dump the old pages but for a while there all still right there.

    VHB’s website pages

  54. robchipman

    Mightymouse:

    Thanks for that excellent info. Who knew? (Aside from you, obviously!) Very helpful.

  55. Domus

    In my opinion, rent control is generally bad, as it can generate a gross misallocation of resources in the long-run, restricting supply of rentable accommodation.

    Rent controls tend to cap the revenue flow in real-term (especially over the long-run) lowering the value of investing in housing and reducing supply. If demand increases (as prices are capped) you can be in situations of de-facto rationing (as it has happened in several European countries in the 70s and 80s). this can be avoided only if there is public provision of subsidized housing, which steps in to substitute private landlords.
    There can however be exceptional circumstances which require rent control, but only for limited amounts of time. I think that in general it is better to limit the rent increases to not exceed CPI inflation by too much.

  56. Domus

    As for affordability: Rob, I think you are really trying to split the hair. What it is meant is simple: if housing costs become too large, house prices are bound to adjust (or take a hit) in real terms.
    Historically a good indicator of this has been the price/income ratio: every single time that measure has exceeded 3 or 4 (depending on location) there has been a rather big downward adjustment in house-prices. Why do i mention it? Because it works! Is it possible that we live in a different paradigm/world where this ratio is not relevant anymore? Many things are possible, but I frankly think it quite unlikely. Conclusion: we are way above that ratio in Vancouver and I expect something to happen to bring us back to the long term average values of that ratio.

  57. VHB

    Mohican over at langley financial planning has all of my archives and data. As do the Pope and solipsist.

    Ask them.

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