Tuesday’s Numbers

There were 277 new listings today and 252 sales, for a sell/list of 90.97%.  Of the sales 26, or 10.32%, went over list.  5 of those were on the Westside. 1 was in East Van, 2 in Richmond, 2 in Port Coquitlam, 1 in Pitt Meadows,  3 in North Van, 2 in Maple Ridge and 1 in Coquitlam.   There were 4 in Burnaby and 5 in the Fraser Valley. 

Average list price of the sales was $496,812; average sales price was $487,967, a difference of $8, ,845 meaning the average sale went for 1.92% under list price. 19 properties went for list price. One property went for 13%($30,000) under list while the highest over list was 25% ($250,000) over.

There were 11 million dollar plus properties sold, with  one over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 43.

There were 99 price changes, of which 10, or 10.32%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $583,517; the average new price was $565,632, a difference of $17,885, meaning the average price change was -2.74%.

Inventory in my target area dropped  to 10,860, while over 90s also dropped to 1,827, or 16.82%.

0.82% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. 

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57 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

57 responses to “Tuesday’s Numbers

  1. e

    … could this be the warming up/delayed spring start?

  2. Skeptic

    Where have all the bears gone now ???

  3. Here’s a prediction: next week will see a ramp up in Sales. Why? Because the weather will get a lot better; i.e. sunny and warm rather than this cold rainy crap we’ve been enjoying. As e suggests the warming is coming and it won’t only be real estate.
    Disclaimer: long range meteorological forecasts are statistically as accurate as short range real estate predictions (hopeless).

  4. Jim

    Oh oh….Boom’s back on. Shoulda bought yesterday.

  5. e

    Don’t forget folks:

    Month to date April 2006: 95% average sell/list, 8200 inventory average

    Month to date April 2007: 61% average sell/list, 10600 inventory average.

    Sell list down 36%. Inventory up 29%. Of course we expect sell/list to go down if inventory is up, and demand is steady. So it appears there is 7% less demand overall? (and a whole lot of inventory).

    If you are a believer in supply and demand, then this is something to consider. If you are a believer in weather, then disregard.

  6. Priced Out

    Last year, this would have been a below average day. This year, the bulls are squeeling with delight. Yes, the market has changed.

  7. AmPa

    “Oh oh….Boom’s back on. Shoulda bought yesterday.”

    Yes!!

    On a similar note, this morning the scale is showing I’m 2 pounds less since I weighted myself last night. That canola oil diet is working.

    and this morning felt a bit warmer than usual, more evidence that global warming is also well under way.

  8. Jim

    AmPa:

    Exactly.
    Evaluating what is perhaps the longest term investment an individual will typically contemplate, using daily stats……. is kinda nuts.

  9. blueskies

    … a good cup of coffee
    … a quick perusal of the Chipman Index
    … a crisp newspaper

    yes! life is good

  10. Snick

    I am sure that as prices decline, sales will improve somewhat. And, from what I am seeing, prices ARE declining.

  11. AmPa

    “Evaluating what is perhaps the longest term investment an individual will typically contemplate, using daily stats……. is kinda nuts.”

    And a waste of time. But admitingly, these numbers give you a fuzzy warm feeling to varios camps of people (myself include)

    The first are those that have their life savings riding on multiple >$600/sqft condos. “Oh, high to list/sell today, life is good, bubblescaremongers be damned”

    The second are the poor saps that said Vancouver is armpit of Canada back in 1995 or even 2000, and didn’t buy when they could have, only to watch others fast track their retirement by 10 years in the ensuing boom. “Sweet, low list/sell, the bubble is bursting! I bet my landlord is squirming now.”

    The third camp that doesn’t care, is whoever that bought in Shaughnessy and kits in the 70’s, bought in Burnaby in the 80’s, and bought in Coquitlam, and Tricities int he 90’s and 00’s, and probably is still buying today, in Whalley, Mission, etc. He/she is the cork riding the waves, weather calm or storming seas. These people know the headlines in the news today, are way too late for investment decisions.

  12. Paulb

    As prices decline , sales will decline. It will be all over the news and who wants to buy on the downslope?

  13. Domus

    A good day for the bulls? Enjoy it guys, it won’t last….

    Those asking prices are coming down fast (as per Rob’s numbers) and there are bound to be people around who are convinced they can snap up bargains because asking prices are lower……
    In fact, we might see a few of these days…..I pity the deluded buyers, I just hope they have some safety net when the fall comes…..

    Even CIBC is rolling the bulls’ drums, more evidence of impending crash to me…..

  14. robchipman

    AmPa:

    Doesn’t matter where you bought in the Lower Mainland. It was all relative. Low rent multiples and low break even point meant you went further out. A premium paid on the property for location meant that you owned on the Westside.

    Still, anyone who bouth prior to 2000 is likely insulated against whatever is coming.

    But, you’re right…these guys don’t care because they are safe, their investments, long term, are performing well, and are very stable. And that, of course, is a nice place to get to.

    Which brings us to PaulB’s question. Who wants to buy on the downslope? Long term holders who find themselves able to determine that they’er in a buyer’s market, but who can’t tell when it will turn. Imagine a down market. Who’s going to be watching these kind of blogs, if they even still exist? There will be few, but motivated investors. Is it wise to buy before the trough? Sure. People buy all sorts of commodities heading into the trough. Its quite common.

  15. Jim

    bueskies:
    What’s a newspaper?
    Some kinda off-line thing?

  16. Snick

    Domus,

    What is CIBC saying? Where? When?

  17. robchipman

    Domus:

    Assuming there is a downturn (safe assumption at some point), here’s the safety net an owner needs:

    5 year mortgage
    stable tenant/cash flow
    sufficient cash flow to hold

    If the owner’s got that they’re ok. 5 years down the line is well into the 6 years required to recover todays values after the crash (I think those were your numbers, but regardless, you can see where I’m going with that).

    If its all based on no mortgage payments until the property can be flipped…different story. Then the safety net is how deep that particular owner’s pockets are.

  18. Snick

    “If the owner’s got that they’re ok. 5 years down the line is well into the 6 years required to recover todays values after the crash”. -Rob

    “…the crash”?

    Why would you suggest a crash is in the works, Rob, when there is no “bubble” as you have often stated?

  19. domus aurea

    My question for Rob: you are a Realtor and you are actively in the market. How much of the current buyers are:

    1) flippers?
    2) long-term RE investors?
    3) first time buyers?
    4) mover-uppers?

    Let me rephrase the question: in the past 12 months and looking at Van West only, what are the relative shares of the 4 groups above?
    Knowing that would be a step forward in predicting the likely outcome (magnitude and timing) of the impending crash…….

  20. Noname

    “5 years down the line is well into the 6 years required to recover todays values after the crash” – Rob says.

    “I tend to disagree” – Japanese RE investor.

  21. Snick

    My turn…Rob, is there a way of finding out how many foreclosure notices have been issued in Greater Vancouver/rest of BC?

    This info is readily available in US markets.

  22. manosinistra

    Snick:

    “Canadian home prices will double in 20 years, CIBC World Markets predicts”
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070418.wcibchousing0418/BNStory/Business/home

    The comments on the article are insightful.

    As per one of the comments: Price double in 20 years implies 3.5% per year, keeping slightly above inflation.

    Talk about smoke and mirrors.

    The first rule of investing: If someone guarantees you double your money, RUN.

  23. robchipman

    Snick:

    “crash”is for sake of argument with domus. He anticipates a prolonged decline in prices that will be worse than what many others expect. Quit trying to catch me saying something that you want me to say. Its boring.

    domus:

    Tough question for me. I don’t do a lot on the Westside, and most of my business there recently is selling. I don’t deal with many flippers, either. I do have some clients who buy and rehab, but thats a small percentage.

    Most of my business is either investors or 1st time/move ups. I see those as two categories, not three, because with 1st timeres/move ups, the issues are generally the same. Only the numbers change. The closest asnwer I can get is that I’m not selling to many investors. Its hard to find acceptable product.

  24. robchipman

    lefty, tell me this: does the rule still apply is I say I’ll double your money in 25 years? 30 years? What if I had a 30 year Treasury bond? (I had to ask 😉

  25. domus aurea

    Cheers Rob.
    Somehow I had a different impression, meaning that I suspect investment is still rampant. but I guess yo have more hands on experience.

    On the Van Sun today there are some interesting figures regarding resale (old houses) volumes: vancouver is down YOY, the only one among big cities in Canada.

    Yes, I am not giving up as a bear, and I still believe strongly in crash……I just cannot see a reason (historical/social/demographic) why Vancouver should avoid one….

  26. domus aurea

    Rob, multilingual as well? Am impressed mate…..

  27. Snick

    “Quit trying to catch me saying something that you want me to say. ”

    I’m not trying to “catch you”. Try communicating more clearly about what you’re saying instead of confusing people.

    BTW, I don’t need your opinion to support my own. I have my own thoughts about an impending crash.

    (I believe it has already begun and that it is going to be a doozy. )

  28. domus aurea

    Cheers Snick, that makes two of us…..

  29. Snick

    Domus,

    Everyone knows your name means “Golden House” and that “manosinistra” is Latin for “sinister hand”. So, you’re right, in a sense. Rob IS multilingual.

    Ciao

  30. domus aurea

    In fact, I believe “manosinistra” is not Latin but rather Italian for left hand….Rob, any ideas on that one?

    Rob never stops surprising me: realtor, blogger and linguist!

  31. domus aurea

    Listings’ game: when do we hit 11k? have your guess….

    I say by April’s end…..

  32. Snick

    Domus,

    The Romans considered the left hand to be “evil” (sinistre) The Arabs are too crazy about it either…

    I agree with your inventory prediction

  33. Snick

    “aren’t”

  34. robchipman

    noname:

    The 6 years is based on domus’s prediction. It might or might not be right, but it lays down some boundaries.

    Snick:

    You can find out about foreclosures by going to court and reading the notices. You can find out about 99% of MLS foreclosures by asking me to put you on a foreclosure list. (http://www.robchipman.com/foreclosures.html)

    domus:

    I read the CIBC report as somewhat less than bullish. Boom/bust without the echo kind of thing, resulting in 3.5% for the next 20, not the widely assumed long term 5%. Do you see reduced demographic pressures here?

  35. Moneyfromasia

    “lefty, tell me this: does the rule still apply is I say I’ll double your money in 25 years? 30 years? What if I had a 30 year Treasury bond? (I had to ask .”

    Haha, Rob Anybody could of doubled their money in RE if they bought in 2001. That would mean that they doubled their money in 6-7 years not 25 years.

    Woohoo!

    If you tell me now (ROB) that it will be another 25 years before RE doubles again then I believe you.
    I am sure though that their will be sump dips and bumps along they way ahead… and not a crash.

    LOL, I think a 20% drop is a correction and not a crash. Can anybody tell me what their interpretation of a crash is? Remember people that we have low interest rates, a two week party and newly introduced 40 year ammortization.

  36. domus aurea

    I occasionally see demographic data for different countries.
    It always strikes me as an odd thing that Canadians (and Vancouverites) believe to be a favorite destination.

    Canada is often regarded as an entry point to North America (at least historically it has been that way): people who come to Canada tend to move to the US after a few years. This has been the norm after WWII and there is no reason to believe things will change soon.

    Yes, I have a feeling that demographic pressure will be much mower in the next 2 decades but expectations adjust slowly.

    One more thing to say: immigration is often from countries where development index is low….as large swathes of of mankind develop (China,India) that pressure subsides. Why would you move from a country growing at 10% per year? Take your dividend and stay (especially since that growth is really per-capita, they do not have immigrants).

    All in all, I have never been more nearish on housing…..

  37. domus aurea

    Moneyfromasia:

    to me a drop of 20% in nominal terms that last for 3 years, coupled with inflation running at 3% for the period is pretty much a crash.

    It would mean that 3 years from now a buyers is 30% down in real terms (1/3!!!)……on a 500k property that’s 170k in today’s dollars…..if you have that cash to lose, please go ahead….

  38. Moneyfromasia

    Ya but were at approx -5% considering sellers drop in expectations and then offers.

  39. dignanmaplethorpe

    And Rember you make money and lose money in Real Estate with leverage so if you put 25% down on a 500k house and it drops 30%, you are now down 170k or 136%. Works the same way going up as going down.

  40. Moneyfromasia

    haha Dignan you look like that guy owen wilson from zoolander!!! Strike a pose baby!

  41. Moneyfromasia

    Domus area sorry but your name sounds so much like Dia-Rea. Aside from your nick name I was even thinking of putting 60K down on a 230k townhome and just live in it. It’s similar to paying rent as well as if the market fluctuats..well it’s only on $60k not my whole piggy bank!

    So you think I am crazy?

  42. deb

    anyone else having trouble getting mls.ca to load? What’s happening there?

  43. domus aurea

    Cheers Money, I am flattered about the name assonance….

    No suggestions for you, after all you read this blog as I do.

    I would not touch RE with a stick, but then again I have been wrong until now. I just have a feeling I might not be wrong for much longer……

  44. domus aurea

    So what’s cooking tonight: high listings or high sales or both?

  45. robchipman

    Hi Deb:

    I just jumped on. Worked fine.

  46. robchipman

    282 vs 179 right now

  47. domus aurea

    Thanks for the update Rob…..it is an interesting fight, better than a Canucks’ game….

  48. manosinistra

    Rob and Domus are right (err… left). I actually picked up manosinistra as a term while learning piano awhile back. It does mean “left hand” which, noted by others, was considered unclean. Unfortunately for me some may judge me as sinister as I am, yes, left handed.

    Anyways, seeing as how there’s a nice group of people here, it’s only fair that I introduce myself (or at least my intentions).

    I lurk on Jurock’s forum and was a fan of VHB and I’m looking to buy a TH or larger condo in the next 1-2 years and am currently (intentionally) renting. My outlook is slightly bearish for no other reason than it seems that things are heading in that direction. I figure the chance of a potential downturn is worth risking what I figure to be a less likely mild upturn.

    Let’s wait and see…

  49. Skeptic

    MLS# V639996 went over by more than 20%, looks like the bears are a little early in calling a slump.

  50. Domus

    Nothing like a breath of fresh air…..here is Skeptic….

    Whoever told you that overprices are inconsistent with a crash? They are in fact the very essence of it….bring them on, incomes are not growing 20% a year which only means one thing….you know what, don’t you?

  51. Skeptic

    You’re not going to lecture me about affordability are you, that old chestnut…..

  52. Domus

    right you are, mentioning affordability ….hmmm… just south of the border it seemed not long ago so many people were finding they could suddenly afford homes….. they say there might be 2.5 millions of them …hmmmm…. let me think……

    Skeptic, sorry mate, don’t mean to be harsh, but you seem to call for it…..

  53. Skeptic

    I read an article yesterday that Seattle prices are still rising, how does that fit the theory Domus ?

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003654112_homesales06m.html

    Its not all bad news south of the border.

    Regarding affordability, take a look around you, there’s lots of money sloshing around. I walked past a building site downtown yesterday and one of the construction workers was lighting a cigar

  54. blueskies

    and one of the construction workers was lighting a cigar

    umm……. actually that was a “philly blunt”
    which will explain the level of construction expertise and attention to detail in the building…….

  55. blueskies

    article yesterday that Seattle prices are still rising

    also saw a reference to the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in the US at their next interest rate meeting…..

    what will that do to Seattle prices?

  56. Bluephoenik

    Skeptic

    Don’t put too much into the construction worker and the cigar – they’re all going through a little fad right now – it’s the latest thing for them all to do.

    How do I know this – because of course my dh is in construction and has been stinking up the house for a while now.

    As for all the money flowing around – my dh is a skilled tradesperson – working for one of the top companies in the city – and they’re having problems keeping people because everyone keeps leaving for Alberta/Ontario where they can afford to live (these are people making $30 an hour)

    and from what he’s seen on the jobsites – he would NEVER buy any of these new condos (he’s been on quite a few). The skilled people are still trying to do their best work – but they’re surrounded (and greatly outnumbered) by newbies who can’t hammer a nail straight.

  57. Snick

    Skeptic,

    Seattle and Vancouver are quite different cities for many reasons.

    For example, Vancouver is Canada’s 3rd largest city; Seattle is just another American “town”.

    Seattle is in the Pacific Northwest, while Vancouver is in the Pacific Southwest…

    And, Vancouver is more culturally diverse…

    I could go on and on.

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