Thursday’s Numbers

There were 265 new listings Thursday and 156 sales, for a sell/list of 58.87%. Of the sales 28, or 17.95%, went over list. 11 of those were on the Westside. 3 were in East Van, 1 was in Port Coquitlam, 1 in Pitt Meadows, and 1 in New West. There were 2 in North Van,  1 in Maple Ridge, 4 in Burnaby, and 4 in the Fraser Valley. There were 15 price reductions on the Westside, and 9 in East Van,  14 in Richmond and 23 in the Valley (which for me consists of North and South Surrey).

Average list price of the sales was $489,257; average sales price was $484,010, a difference of $5,247, meaning the average sale went for 1.32% under list price. 20 properties went for list price. One property went for 27%($5,400) under list while the highest over list was 21% ($53,000) over.

There were 3 million dollar plus properties sold, with one over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 33.

There were 108 price changes, of which 13, or 12.04%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $559,603; the average new price was $542,141, a difference of $17,463, meaning the average price change was -2.68%.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 10,720, while over 90s dropped to 1,824, a percentage drop to 17.30%.

There were 152 expiries today.

.90% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. 

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9 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

9 responses to “Thursday’s Numbers

  1. Annon

    Hi,
    Thanks for the report. Wondering if there is a detailed breakdown of the 28 that went over the listing price. I am hoping to learn about those that went over listing price. For example, are they mostly condos? Or were they listed below market value to start and of course they will end up going over listing price? Any additional data is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

  2. Domus

    Cheers Rob,

    you also did not mention the rolling sell/list ratio. Last thursday we were around 65.5%. I have a feeling this Thursday we are below 64%.

    It should go in the opposite direction if the Spring season was really getting under way….

    I see so many little, inconspicuous signs pointing all to the same conclusion (I won’t mention what the conclusion is, otherwise Skeptic will attack me and say that I provide unsubstantiated comments!)

    Figure it out yourselves, readers…….

  3. Chris

    Hi Rob, thanks for the stats. Could you please tell me how inventory has risen, the numbers don’t add up. At 156 sales and 152 expiries wouldnt that mean an inventory drop of 43 based on 265 new listings.

  4. robchipman

    Annon:

    There is a detailed report. That’s where these numbers originate. The problem is how much data I report.

    da:

    No rolling sell/list today. I have that data on a PC at another site. I did todays on a 1 off spreadsheet here at work. I’ll try to post it later. Here’s something to think about: I’ve said before that in many markets most listings don’t sell. I think a lot of people don’t believe that, but when you reconcile that with the graphics representing “balanced markets” you cans ee that its true. I know that you’re concerned with the speed of change that you think you see, but if I were to tell you that a 65% sell/list strikes me as pretty good, wouldn’t you agree? 65% of inventory is selling for within 2% of list price within 35 days kind of thing?

    Chris:

    The numbers don’t always add up quite as nicely as that. I think the biggest issue is that listings and sales show up as a result of individual data transactions, whereas expired listings and over 90s are automated and happen at midnight. Daily inventory and over 90s totals are pretty close, but they do vary depending on when I look at it during a day. Nothing gets counted twice, but its not always counted in exact order, if you follow me. Long term it stays pretty close to real number, but a download at 11:59 pm will differ from one at 12:01 am, whcih will differ again from one at 10:30 am. Again, at month end, if I was showing 10,500, and we all knew I was off by a margin of error of say +/- 0.5%, we’d also see that I was as close as always to REBGV’s totals (I’m usually a little lower – I’ll have 10k, they’ll have 11k, based on slightly different areas that we count).

  5. Domus

    Fair enough Rob.

    My point is only that many of the ‘bad’ stock would have sold for list price last year. Anything was going back then, but not any longer.

    I take your point that the status quo is clearly not crash-like, and might appear healthy to an outsider. My point is that the trend is towards a worsening.

    Have a good weekend and thanks again for the numbers.

  6. ObserverX

    Rob: Re: over lists. Do you (or any other Realtor here) have any sense of how much competition is at work with the over list sales? Is it that there’s 3 offers with 2 offers under/at list and 1 offer way above (because the buyer is thinking “Oh my god, it’s the end of the world if I don’t get it”) or is it that there’s 20 offers all above list and the winner just barely beat out #2?

  7. Jim

    ObserverX
    I am not a realtor but have bid on a “few” properties in the last few years. I can tell you that there are fewer bidders going over asking versus last year. But it only takes one who “must have it” for it to go way over asking. If there are multiple offers (even 2 or 3) it always goes over asking.
    Domus:
    I have read a sell list ratio under 60 % is a balanced market under 40 % is a buyers market. Whenever sell list falls below 50% inventory will build significantly.

  8. Jim

    A good graphical veiw of sales/list ratio and market type can be founf here at the end of the document.

    http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/city_housing.pdf

  9. robchipman

    As a general rule, no. It can be any combination. The most offers I’ve seen is 9, and the house went for $90,000 over. The most I’ve had as a listing agent is 7, and the house went over, but not to the highest priced offer. Even in this market it varies. You can multiple offers over list with no subjects, and multiples under list with subjects.

    In foreclosures I’ve often seen 3 or 4 offers, with one under, one at list price, and two very close to that day’s market value. We once lost in that scenario by $250. I’m certain the winning Realtor evaluated his three competitors, dismissed two of them, evaluated what we’d pay, and then added $250 to that price.

    What you find out is how many offers there are, and, once subjects are off, what the winning price was. You also know your own price. You don’t get to know other prices as a rule. However, a seller can instruct his agent to divulge the other offer prices. That doesn’t tie the buyer agent’s hands, but it does make it difficult.

    I once was presenting on a house in Maple Ridge. The listing agent told me that he’d present the other offer first, and decide whether to take it or not, and then possibly give me a chance to present. We worked under sub-agency in thise days, so my strict black letter law responsibility was to the seller, not my buyer, although I obviously had a duty of agency to my buyer as well. I advised the listing Realtor that it was in the sellers interet to let me present before he made his mind up, as competition would make my buyer pay more. Neither the listing agent nor the seller really understood my point (surprise, surprise). The first buyer’s agent presented, and the seller rejected the offer, perhaps thinking he’d get a counter. The buyer’s agent walked out, told me he’d been rejected, and tore the offer in half. He handed half to me and said “This way at least we both get something out of this deal”. I went in and was advised by the seller’s agent that he had just rejected a very good offer, and that he expected a better one from me. I replied that when we were in competition I felt a little under the gun, and pointed to the car outside with my buyer, and the other car leaving with the first buyer’s agent. “We’re not competing anymore”, I said, and then I closed the deal. Different market, low inventory, but slow prices. We didn’t pay over list.

    Keep that story in mind should you ever be tempted, as a seller, to play buyers off against one another.

    BTW, I still have that client. She’s retired and gets free cash flow from that property.

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