Wednesday Numbers

There were 337 new listings today and 169 sales, for a sell/list of 50.15%. Of the sales 30, or 17.75%, went over list. 8 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond and 4 in Pitt Meadows. There were 3 in North Van, 1 in New West, 1 in Maple Ridge, 4 in Burnaby, and 3 in the Fraser Valley. There were 22 price reductions on the Westside, and 18 in Richmond.

Average list price of the sales was $519,311; average sales price was $510,916, a difference of $8,394, meaning the average sale went for 1.37% under list price. 16 properties went for list price. One property went for 13%($125,000) under list while the highest over list was 13% ($35,000) over.

There were 11 million dollar plus properties sold, with none over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 32.

There were 124 price changes, of which 22, or 17.74%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $527,013; the average new price was $518,600, a difference of $8,413, meaning the average price change was -1.74%.

Inventory in my target area rose today to 10,614, while over 90s dropped to 1,874, a percentage drop to 17.66%.

There were 92 expiries today.

.96% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 63.60%

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27 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

27 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. e

    Thanks Rob. Wonder if today will be a low listing/low sell due to a sleepy town after a long hockey game! 🙂

  2. VHB

    e: recall that the sales reported today actually took place something like 2 weeks ago (can someone help me here?). They take time to flow through the system. The listings reported today actually were signed within the past few days – but not necessarily today. There are lags.

  3. Jim

    Wrote an offer on a property Monday in Kits. Offered full price, no subjects ,and it needed a 300k reno. I was beat out by 100k. Looked at another in VWS. Asking 1399k sold for 1799k. The big difference this year versus the previous 5 is they are attracting only a few offers, and in each case only one offer over asking. My crystal ball got lost in my last move-but THIS is not sustainable. As for reversion to the mean-that will happen, but the mean has risen.

  4. e

    vhb: ya, sorry, i didn’t mean that it would be reflected in the numbers publisehd today; i meant today as in actual activity today.

    Jim: if you think this is not sustainable, and you are buying such $$$ property, then wouldn’t it warrant holding back? or are you just buying out of need/conservatism?

  5. Dammit Jim

    Not even subject to inspection – have you lost your mind? Don’t participae in this lunacy.

  6. Jim

    If I was convinced the market was going to stay hot- I would be buying up. Had I got this property at my price it would have been fine, as I plan on holding for at least 10 years. Unlike the rocket scientests that can confidently predict a RE melt down- I cannot. Or the super brilliant RE agents that can confidently predict the market will go up down or sideways-depending on their audience-I cannot. I prefer to hedge.

  7. Jim

    I inspected it.

  8. Jim

    Jim:
    1) thats an expensive hedge! (well, for most of us anyway!)
    2) maybe it is people such as yourself who are buoying the market — i.e. wealthier than average individuals who can afford quality product no matter how hot the market is
    3) i have a money manager who has averaged me double digit returns for the past 15 years; if one had money to buy a house, and was a little hesitant, then by investing it elsewhere, even if prices were to go up double digit indefinitely, he/she would not be priced out.

  9. Domus

    When are we hitting 11k?

    Here is some simple arithmetic: suppose we keep on adding a (very conservative) 50 units per weekday to the stock. It will take roughly 8 weekdays to get to 11k, meaning we should see this level by next week’s end.

    How about 12k? Well, it would take approximately a month, if the gradient keeps constant: end of May?

    I think the gradient might actually increase, but that is me……….

  10. Not Jim

    Domus: Or when will we hit 6 months inventory which is irresepective of total inventory, and more impactful?

  11. awum

    It’s still only at about three months inventory in Rob’s area. Significantly higher than last year, yes. Not even “balanced market” territory. Moving in that direction maybe.

    According to REBGV numbers, they had about 2.9 months of inventory in March 2007, compared with 2.1 months of inventory in March 2006.

    Lasy year at this time, activity in Rob’s area was peaking, selling an average of about 250 properties per day and listing about the same. Months of inventory was shrinking dramatically over the first part of April; it then started rising again, not fully recovering until the end of May. It’s different this year.

    My (bold) prediction: 6 months of inventory in August.

    … July if buyers start getting skittish…

    … if it happens in June, the wheels have fallen off the wagon…

    … if it happens in May, it’s 1981 all over again!…

  12. domus aurea

    awum:

    good analysis. I think you give some good description of the different scenarios.

    Leaving aside the months of inventory, I like the idea of looking at aggregate numbers because I can compare day-by-day.

    One question for you 9and everyone else): why do you think we are obsering this high listing (300 and above) on a daily basis.

  13. blueskies

    why do you think we are obserVing this high listing (300 and above) on a daily basis.

    the wanna be sellers may figure that prices have risen as far as they are going to go and this spring is the time to capture the appreciation….

    now if too many feel this way….. should be very interesting.

  14. awum

    I don’t think it’s all that high.

    There may be a fair number of folks like a former work colleague of mine: He was playing the popular pre-sale “flip” game for the last few years. Now he can’t seem to flip before completion so he and his family are listing and re-listing his properties (he’s got three in one building!).

    Think about it — how many sale signs are we seeing at recently completed buildings? If it’s a lot (or at least more than we’ve seen in the past) then that would back up my theory. If not, then he’s an exception and probably just bought in the wrong building.

  15. Domus

    So you think it’s all new buildings? Everything else constant, the flow of newly-built supply explains higher listings?

    I would be much more bearish if i found out that many of the new listings are existing properties: it would mean a proper shift in psychology for many people who have decided to sell.

    An explanation based on new listings is more mechanical, and does not imply a change in psychology.

    Notice: regardless of how long it takes to shift a property, we are seeing a huge flow of new supply (unprecedented)……cannot all be relistings…….what are they?

  16. Skeptic

    Domus/Awum, dream on, we’re still going up, just at a slower pace than last year. Wait till overlist is 0% and days on market over 60 days before you call the bust. We’re seeing 15% overlist on average and days on market mid 30’s.

    This winter has been longer than last as well, wait till the weather warms up, the buyers will come…

  17. chip

    “This winter has been longer than last as well, wait till the weather warms up, the buyers will come…”

    I may be going out on a limb here but perhaps you should try a tag other than “Skeptic.”

  18. Domus

    Skeptic,

    fair enough, there are still people willing to gamble at current prices. Should that change a bear’s mind? The answer is no.

    What matters to me is not where we are right now, but where we are heading………

    The market is clearly heading for a big adjustment, or call it what you want. And I think it won’t take a long time to get there.

    You mention overlist at 0% and days on market over 60 days: to me is not a matter of “if”, but “when”. And I think the “when” is pretty soon…..

    Dream on Skeptic…..this job won’t make you rich much longer……

  19. Skeptic

    Domus: “You mention overlist at 0% and days on market over 60 days: to me is not a matter of “if”, but “when”. And I think the “when” is pretty soon…..”

    Based on ? Crystal ball gazing ? How about some substance to your argument.

  20. Domus

    Skeptic,

    I mentioned that “I think” that will happen. No need to get upset.

    As for the reason, I have been following Rob’s blog for a long time. The numbers are getting closer and closer to “overlist at 0%” and days on market are increasing month by month.

    There humps and bumps in this adjustment, but in the past few months I have noticed a speeding-up of the process.

    In fact, back in February there were days in which we got very close to “overlist at 0%”….I remember a couple of days in which there were overlists in single digits.

    Skeptic: this was unheard of until 12 months ago! So, to me these facts point towards one simple truth: the market is fast cooling down and you can forget about the type of appreciation you were used to…….

    Hope this explains why “I think” what “I think”……
    What are your facts???? Please, go ahead…..

  21. Skeptic

    Domus: “I mentioned that “I think” that will happen. No need to get upset.”

    Wrong, what you said was: “The market is clearly heading for a big adjustment, or call it what you want. And I think it won’t take a long time to get there.” The ‘think’ part referred to when. I’m not upset, I’m curious to see whether there’s any substance to your argument or whether its just your ‘gut feel’.

    Cast your browser back to April 15, 2006 on Rob’s old blog, overlists were 20% (average for about a month). We’re at about 15% now, sure we’ve had a couple of low days but the average is still around 15% (Rob feel free to chime in with the actual numbers). I don’t see how this equates to “the market is fast cooling down” as you put it.

    Overlists point to buyers climbing over each other which is a bullish sign. You can argue the toss over ‘sharp pricing’ by agents but overlists tell a story.

    You say days on market are increasing, can you please back up this statement ? Over the winter I think we were in the 40’s and 50’s, I can’t find this metric in Rob’s older posts.

    Domus: “What are your facts???? Please, go ahead…..”

    Simple, my argument is days on market in the 30’s and overlists around 15% still equals a strong market. Maybe not as strong as previous years but we’re still going up, just not as quickly.

    Domus Argument: “I think”

  22. Domus

    Skeptic:

    if you are so good at interpreting the way I speak, please have your way…..I’ll be gallant to you.

    Let me reiterate that anything I write is obviously my opinion……..but feel free to interpret it whichever way you want, I am not in the business of imposing my views on others!

    As for backing up my statements: my comparison goes back to the comparable season of last year, not to the winter months when nothing much happens.

    Will you agree with me at least on the fact that there is right now a “remarkable” difference with respect to the market of last year? Will you agree that is much less tight? Will you allow me to infer that this might be part of a trend towards lower price pressure? is it too much to believe that we might be at the same place where San Diego was a year ago?

    Of course, this is my view of things and I frankly believe the current numbers support it. It is not my gut feeling, rather a testing of my hypothesis based on the data I am seeing….

    Could I be wrong? Of course, no need to get all worked up. But I have to reiterate to you (and everyone else reading this blog) that the numbers are pointing towards a softer market than in the past few years. I sincerely hope that I can convince at least some young buyers to think twice before getting in, wait a bit longer: they might be grateful for that – and if I am wrong they could probably still find properties in the same price range 12 months from now, because the steep appreciation have ended (see the discounts on listed prices)….

    To me it’s just a case of “buyers beware”! Dear Skeptic you should chill a bit and enjoy life!

  23. Skeptic

    Domus: “if you are so good at interpreting the way I speak, please have your way…..I’ll be gallant to you.

    Let me reiterate that anything I write is obviously my opinion……..but feel free to interpret it whichever way you want, I am not in the business of imposing my views on others!”

    Ok. If I’ve misunderstood you, I apologize, mostly though I’ve just quoted what you said. Please correct me if I’ve got it wrong.

    Domus: “As for backing up my statements: my comparison goes back to the comparable season of last year, not to the winter months when nothing much happens.”

    Ok, good point, things are definitely seasonal. So what were the days on market this time last year, I can’t find them in Rob’s blog. Yes, I agree the overlists have dropped from around 20% to 15%.

    Will you agree with me at least on the fact that there is right now a “remarkable” difference with respect to the market of last year?

    Maybe, after all, overlists are down from 20% to 15%.

    “Will you agree that is much less tight?”

    Maybe, time will tell, spring is late this year, maybe the spring rush is still to come.

    “Will you allow me to infer that this might be part of a trend towards lower price pressure?”

    Perhaps, do you have other evidence ? Lower price pressure may mean prices are not rising as quickly as last year.

    “is it too much to believe that we might be at the same place where San Diego was a year ago?”

    I think this is a stretch. I don’t know much about the market in San Diego, perhaps you could quote some facts on it for comparison ?

    I’m not worked up and I am chilled out and enjoying life, thanks for being concerned. I was just curious to see if there was any substance and back up to your comments.

  24. e

    Another sign of a bull market — % of price changes which are increases. Around 23% average this time last year. Around 13% average at this time.

  25. Jim

    You say overlists like its a part of a normal market. Its not -its part of a crazy market. Whether it 20% or 5% its still indicative of a raging market. Now, raging markets can ,and have come, to screeching halts with out announcing it in advance. The key difference between this market and previous I have bought and sold in, is realtors have been watching too many episodes of “flip that house”. They are convincing their clients to list slightly below market ,to attract eyeballs, and start a bidding war. I am surprised now when a SFH on the Westside sells at or below list because of this tactic. Truth is: sell /list is falling versus last year. The US has preceded us by about 12 to 18 months in every RE downturn since the 60’s. Prices are rising in the face of falling sales, and rising inventory. So prices will now start falling, or inventory will fall and sales start rising. That’s not a crystal ball, that’s a rational way to consider your investment options-which always must include timing.

  26. Domus

    “The US has preceded us by about 12 to 18 months in every RE downturn since the 60’s. Prices are rising in the face of falling sales, and rising inventory. So prices will now start falling, or inventory will fall and sales start rising. That’s not a crystal ball, that’s a rational way to consider your investment options-which always must include timing.”

    Skeptic, is Jim another deluded bear?
    Is RE in Vancouver the best thing money can buy?
    Would you say that to a couple with young children who are impatient to get in due to peer pressure?

  27. Skeptic

    “Skeptic, is Jim another deluded bear?”

    Domus, I’d prefer to focus on the arguments, rather than the people.

    I agree with a lot of what Jim says, he thinks overlists are a sign of a crazy and abnormal market, I agree. I’ve wondered whether agents pricing strategies have changed since last year, i.e. more ‘sharply priced’ listings, maybe Jim is on to something there.

    I don’t know about the link with the US, Jim states it as a fact, perhaps he can provide a link to his source.

    Jim then talks about rising inventory, falling sales and how prices must fall. I think these are some possible outcomes, however I think its equally likely that things may continue much as they are with steady or slightly rising prices.

    For a couple with young children, if peer pressure is an issue driving their decisions, perhaps they are not yet mature enough to take on a large financial commitment. My advice would be to make up your own mind, dependent on your circumstances. Talk to lots of people, build your own opinions, look at lots of properties and figure out your own sense of value.

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