Comments on: Thursday’s Numbers http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/ Just another WordPress.com weblog Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:06:27 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Moneyfromasia http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-92 Moneyfromasia Tue, 10 Apr 2007 00:30:45 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-92 Oops, forgot to mention if there is 20% correction it would take us to 2005 prices. Oops, forgot to mention if there is 20% correction it would take us to 2005 prices.

]]> By: Moneyfromasia http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-91 Moneyfromasia Tue, 10 Apr 2007 00:28:19 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-91 Way to go Geezer, "Upward cycle?" It's a market and markets have there cycles up and down. Long term, the recoveries make gains to where RE is a great investment "long term." There won't be a apocalypse, do you know why? Supporting factors against a crash. ~Recent intro of 40 year ammortization. ~Low rates ~Yes there are jobs ( they aren't paying enough to sustian anymore rise in RE though) I think we all can agree there won't be a crash as long as the rates stay where they are. Last thought for everybody. NO spike in rates no crash in market. So get over it. Bootom line, corrections of up to 20% are realistic. Way to go Geezer, “Upward cycle?” It’s a market and markets have there cycles up and down. Long term, the recoveries make gains to where RE is a great investment “long term.”

There won’t be a apocalypse, do you know why?

Supporting factors against a crash.

~Recent intro of 40 year ammortization.
~Low rates
~Yes there are jobs ( they aren’t paying enough to sustian anymore rise in RE though)

I think we all can agree there won’t be a crash as long as the rates stay where they are.

Last thought for everybody.

NO spike in rates no crash in market. So get over it.

Bootom line, corrections of up to 20% are realistic.

]]> By: dignanmaplethorpe http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-90 dignanmaplethorpe Tue, 10 Apr 2007 00:10:00 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-90 Geezer April 9th, 2007 at 1:35 am Up pretty late for an old man. Geezer
April 9th, 2007 at 1:35 am

Up pretty late for an old man.

]]> By: Geezer http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-89 Geezer Mon, 09 Apr 2007 23:43:25 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-89 Jaymo said "Sorry, I just don’t buy the geezer character. His ‘bio’ just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob’s philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad?" Sorry to disappoint you, I have no idea about Rob's bio, I have never read it nor have I met him. I am a transplanted Brit who has lived here for over 30 years and who has become an unapologetic Vancouver booster. That's the only reason I may share some of Rob's more positive views of the city and its probable future. For the record, I am not sure that all Canadian born folks truly appreciate just how good this entire country is and in particular, just how good this amazing city is. After all these years I still look out at the skyline and thank God for giving me the chance to come here. Surely any place that can have such a powerful effect on people is worthy of a fairly substantial premium on its RE prices? Have we already achieved that premium? Have we surpassed it or could there still be some more to come? I don't know but personally I doubt if prices will continue to move up as fast as in the recent past but I also doubt that the apocalypse is upon us. My bet is somewhere in-between, then after a few years the upward cycle will start all over again. Jaymo said

“Sorry, I just don’t buy the geezer character. His ‘bio’ just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob’s philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad?”

Sorry to disappoint you, I have no idea about Rob’s bio, I have never read it nor have I met him. I am a transplanted Brit who has lived here for over 30 years and who has become an unapologetic Vancouver booster. That’s the only reason I may share some of Rob’s more positive views of the city and its probable future.

For the record, I am not sure that all Canadian born folks truly appreciate just how good this entire country is and in particular, just how good this amazing city is. After all these years I still look out at the skyline and thank God for giving me the chance to come here. Surely any place that can have such a powerful effect on people is worthy of a fairly substantial premium on its RE prices?

Have we already achieved that premium? Have we surpassed it or could there still be some more to come? I don’t know but personally I doubt if prices will continue to move up as fast as in the recent past but I also doubt that the apocalypse is upon us. My bet is somewhere in-between, then after a few years the upward cycle will start all over again.

]]> By: Jaymo http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-88 Jaymo Mon, 09 Apr 2007 23:16:50 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-88 Not to flog a dead horse, but I also don't know any people that would qualify as elderly that would appreciate being called geezer, let alone call themselves that. Self-effacing to the extreme, or a totally BS handle by a totally fabricated persona.... Not to flog a dead horse, but I also don’t know any people that would qualify as elderly that would appreciate being called geezer, let alone call themselves that. Self-effacing to the extreme, or a totally BS handle by a totally fabricated persona….

]]> By: Jaymo http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-86 Jaymo Mon, 09 Apr 2007 21:43:46 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-86 Sorry, I just don't buy the geezer character. His 'bio' just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob's philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad? Sorry, I just don’t buy the geezer character. His ‘bio’ just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob’s philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad?

]]> By: Jaymo http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-85 Jaymo Mon, 09 Apr 2007 21:43:22 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-85 Soory, I just don't buy the geezer character. His 'bio' just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob's philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad? Soory, I just don’t buy the geezer character. His ‘bio’ just seems a little too perfect in the way that it fleshes out Rob’s philosophy all too well. Rob, is geezer your Dad?

]]> By: Moneyfromasia http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-84 Moneyfromasia Mon, 09 Apr 2007 20:13:02 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-84 Oh Jim, after that comment your my hero! I agree as well but I think there are still a few select opportunities out there for the right buyer. Oh Jim, after that comment your my hero!

I agree as well but I think there are still a few select opportunities out there for the right buyer.

]]> By: Jim http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-82 Jim Mon, 09 Apr 2007 18:23:29 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-82 Geezer: I give you credit for your observation about the sacrifices made when purchasing my first home. It was a small house in Richmond in 1983 for $44k (at the time westside bungalows started at about 100k I believe),and it needed work. I was earning $18000 per year as a new UBC grad in sales . I took no vacations away, few dinners out, etc. Richmond was the burbs in those days. I ultimately traded up to a $3 million portfolio in the Westside and on the island. Took me 30 years of "sweat equity". That being said I had no "stats", no internet, certainly no bloggers, to guide me. I had a lot of luck however ,and an unswerving belief in Real Estate as a safe investment. But I would not buy now because I have more information and its all pointing to a correction down. Geezer: I give you credit for your observation about the sacrifices made when purchasing my first home. It was a small house in Richmond in 1983 for $44k (at the time westside bungalows started at about 100k I believe),and it needed work. I was earning $18000 per year as a new UBC grad in sales . I took no vacations away, few dinners out, etc. Richmond was the burbs in those days. I ultimately traded up to a $3 million portfolio in the Westside and on the island. Took me 30 years of “sweat equity”. That being said I had no “stats”, no internet, certainly no bloggers, to guide me. I had a lot of luck however ,and an unswerving belief in Real Estate as a safe investment. But I would not buy now because I have more information and its all pointing to a correction down.

]]> By: Geezer http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-78 Geezer Mon, 09 Apr 2007 08:35:13 +0000 http://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/04/05/thursdays-numbers/#comment-78 VHB said "However, over a longer term horizon, I’m very happy to predict that prices will return to normal relationships with incomes and rents. If you want to call that timing the market, that’s fine." No, my idea of market timing is when people think they know where the market is going in the short term. In broad terms I agree with you that incomes and rents will usually return to somewhere close to their historically normal relationships but this can take many years. The burning question now is if in this hot economy rents and incomes are too low and "normal" relationships will eventually be restored as a result of rents and incomes rising as they often have in the past. Anecdotally I am aware of some pretty astonishing rents being paid in the downtown core but that whole area has undergone a massive transformation an in my mind has increased dramatically in desireabillity. I must add that I don't think 90's prices were normal, they were depressed and we were long overdue for a significant run up. I expect that at some point the current price increases will slow or stop and yes, prices may even decline for a while but it is also possible that incomes and rents will do what they have been doing in Calgary and some of the Northern boom towns. That's just my guess but just like everybody else I don't really know. I think another possibility is that we may all be guilty of missing the larger picture, what if values haven't really risen? Is it possible that it is just the value of money has been collapsing? Of course that opens up a much larger debate about Mr. Bush, printing presses and global liquidity but sadly I'm totally unqualified to go there. VHB said
“However, over a longer term horizon, I’m very happy to predict that prices will return to normal relationships with incomes and rents. If you want to call that timing the market, that’s fine.”

No, my idea of market timing is when people think they know where the market is going in the short term. In broad terms I agree with you that incomes and rents will usually return to somewhere close to their historically normal relationships but this can take many years. The burning question now is if in this hot economy rents and incomes are too low and “normal” relationships will eventually be restored as a result of rents and incomes rising as they often have in the past. Anecdotally I am aware of some pretty astonishing rents being paid in the downtown core but that whole area has undergone a massive transformation an in my mind has increased dramatically in desireabillity.

I must add that I don’t think 90’s prices were normal, they were depressed and we were long overdue for a significant run up.

I expect that at some point the current price increases will slow or stop and yes, prices may even decline for a while but it is also possible that incomes and rents will do what they have been doing in Calgary and some of the Northern boom towns. That’s just my guess but just like everybody else I don’t really know.

I think another possibility is that we may all be guilty of missing the larger picture, what if values haven’t really risen? Is it possible that it is just the value of money has been collapsing? Of course that opens up a much larger debate about Mr. Bush, printing presses and global liquidity but sadly I’m totally unqualified to go there.

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